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Medium and long term bull market

Time:2017-05-15 14:19 Author:admin Click:

Since the beginning of this year, the bond market investment has become increasingly difficult to operate, the investment in blue bond fund manager Liu Wanfeng's investment double debt enhanced performance ranking has remained in the top two market. Liu Wanfeng said that in the current market environment, long-term bond yields remain low and may continue to break down conditions.

Bond market is a long-term bull market pattern

Securities Times reporter: 10 year bond yields low innovation, bond bull market will continue?

Liu Wanfeng: at present, the global economic situation is in the doldrums, the low interest rate environment is likely to continue. Domestic also faces economic downturn, structural adjustment and other long-term problems, bond yields remain low and may continue to break down conditions. The main line of interest rate decision is still the economic growth and long-term return level. The bull market has a longer duration, and the downward trend of interest rates is accompanied by a decline in the growth rate of financial institutions, investment and so on. Since the beginning of the year, the yield around the market is expected to continue to amend the economic situation after the first down and then down, the 10 year treasury bond interest rate in the UK off the European referendum all the way down, and in the near future hit a new low. In addition to the weakening of economic expectations and the global low interest rate environment, the supply and demand structure is also the reason for the rapid decline of interest rates in a short time and the further flattening of the yield curve. We can observe more than 10 years of super long debt in recent performance is particularly eye-catching, this is likely to be the result of various types of funds driven. At the same time, the traditional leveraged trading model may gradually shift to the secular trading model because spreads are squeezed too thin. Medium and long term is still relatively optimistic about the bond market, the short term for the gallon, long-term and ultra cautious.

At present, some countries have appeared low interest rates or even negative interest rates, but China's industrial structure, market openness, policy control and other aspects of these countries are different, not a simple analogy. In the long run, Treasury interest rates will be low, or even continue to downside, but the short-term caution about zero interest rates.

Risk outbreak brings layout opportunities

Securities Times reporter: in recent years, the bond market default risk increased sharply, from private enterprises to the central enterprises gradually spread. What impact will this have on the bond market?

Liu Wanfeng: since last year, there have been many defaults in the bond market, which is the manifestation of economic problems in the bond market, and the default of bonds has become a new variable in the bond market. First of all, from the market level, the default is likely to lead to the bond market stampede, and then bring liquidity shocks, the bond market adjustment. For example, in April of this year; secondly, from the perspective of asset management, in the event of default by the processing gradually promote market-oriented background, the need to strengthen the bond credit screening, the value of mining and risk pricing in the market, such as relatively pessimistic, overcapacity in some high-quality bonds, bonds instead of high-quality private enterprises highlights better configuration value.

Transactions from the current market situation, the more sought after credit debt varieties are still city debt and high-grade credit bonds. Interest rates continue to decline in the environment, the spread of different rating is narrowing, the need to pay attention to credit spreads and duration of cost-effective. At the same time, bond qualification whether city debt or industrial debt, regardless of the surface rating of high and low, and ultimately have to return to the bond fundamentals analysis, to prevent credit risk.

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